Scenario planning is a structured methodology for strategic foresight. It involves creating several radically different, yet plausible and coherent narratives (scenarios) of what the future might look like in the medium to long term. Rather than relying on a single, rigid forecast, the organisation explores various paths of development in market, technological, social and political conditions.

Important note: Scenario planning is not intended to predict the future, as the future is, by definition, unpredictable. It is designed to help you prepare for various possible outcomes, so that your organisation can thrive whatever the circumstances.

There are many methodologies for scenario building. For some time now, we have been using our own version of this methodology, based on the multidimensional deduction methodology. The most significant differences lie in the way change factors are selected and classified, which allows us to identify those factors over which we have a significant influence. This greatly facilitates the formulation of proactive action plans and strategies. We are constantly refining our approach to reasoning and, by tailoring methodological assumptions to the objectives of a given project, we optimise the costs of the research carried out.

The difference is fundamental and boils down to one’s approach to risk:

• Forecasting: looks to the past and assumes that trends will develop in a linear fashion. It seeks a single ‘most likely’ path. It works well in stable environments.
• Scenario planning: It also looks to the future, but takes into account non-linearity, shocks and disruptions (so-called ‘black swans’). It explores a wide range of possibilities. It works well in highly uncertain and volatile environments.

We live in an age of constant upheaval – from the pandemic, through the AI revolution, to geopolitical shifts. Using scenario planning offers specific advantages:

• Resilience: you’ll avoid decision paralysis in the face of a crisis. Your organisation will already have well-thought-out contingency plans in place.
• Agility: you will be able to spot early signs of market changes more quickly and react before your competitors do.
• Breaking the mould: This method forces management to step out of their comfort zone and abandon wishful thinking (“things will be just as they were, only a little better”).
• Creating new values: When combined with other techniques, it finally enables us to design new values, harness potential in alternative ways, and thereby create new business models. If this process is ongoing, we are dealing with a ‘resilient’ organisation – one that is prepared for external shocks and able to turn them into advantages.

Although there are many different approaches (including the Shell method and the Oxford method), the process generally consists of the following stages:

1. Problem definition: setting a time horizon (e.g. 2035) and a key strategic issue (e.g. ‘The future of mobility in Europe’).
2. Identification of driving forces: identifying trends across the STEEP domains (social, technological, economic, environmental, political).
3. Selection of critical uncertainties: identifying the two factors that have the greatest impact on business, but which are also subject to the highest degree of uncertainty (e.g. the pace of climate regulation versus the availability of rare raw materials).
4. Structure of the scenario matrix: the intersection of two uncertainties, resulting in four distinctly different worlds.
5. Development of the narrative: to describe these four worlds in the form of coherent, engaging stories.
6. Strategy testing (‘Wind-tunneling’): assessing how the company’s current strategy would fare in each of these four worlds, and adapting it accordingly.

Definitely not! Although this method has its roots in large institutions, it is now essential for every business.

• For SMEs: helps to identify new product niches and avoid investments that, in certain scenarios, would prove to be misguided.
• For start-ups: enables businesses to test their business models against future regulatory or technological changes, making them more resilient to shocks before entering global markets.
• For business support organisations: enables the creation of sector-specific or regional economic development strategies. When combined with other instruments, it also ensures the functional integration of a group of enterprises’ resources, creating new areas of competitiveness.

We are doing everything we can to break down the barriers to accessing this type of service. In our view, some of this research should be made public and accessible to everyone, serving as a kind of business-related ‘meta-service’. This would allow every entrepreneur to independently assess their resilience and review their strategy, regardless of how formalised it is. More advanced research, however, should be ‘tailor-made’ and fit in with the way a particular industry or business operates.

Investing time and resources in this process pays off many times over. The main benefits are:

• Early Warning System: a set of specific indicators that will show you which scenario reality is heading towards.
• Strategic options: a set of tried-and-tested moves and investments that work in any scenario (so-called ‘no-regret moves’).
• Unifying the decision-making team: Going through the process together fosters a shared language and vision among board members, which drastically speeds up the subsequent process of making difficult decisions.

Start with a small step. Organise a one-day workshop with key stakeholders in your company. Work together to identify the two biggest sources of uncertainty in your industry and try to imagine what would happen if they took on extreme values. Even this simple exercise will immediately open up new perspectives and demonstrate the value of scenario thinking.

There are many of them. Choosing the right tool depends on whether the aim is to quickly test a new business model or to build long-term resilience across entire ecosystems and markets. We list some of them below.

1. The Intuitive Logics method (GBN/Shell school)

This is the most popular, most ‘business-oriented’ approach, popularised by Shell and the Global Business Network (including Peter Schwartz). It is based on identifying the most critical and uncertain driving forces.

• How it works: From among the dozens of identified trends, the two factors with the greatest impact and the highest level of uncertainty are selected. By plotting them on the X and Y axes, a 2×2 matrix is obtained, which generates four distinct but plausible scenarios.
• Best use: an ideal method for quickly designing and testing new business models. It allows you to verify whether a planned offering or product will hold up under radically different market conditions.
• The challenge: sometimes oversimplifies reality by reducing it to just two main variables.

2. The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA)

Designed specifically for TUNA environments (Turbulent, Uncertain, Novel, Ambiguous). This method does not focus on ‘predicting’ the future, but on challenging the deeply ingrained assumptions of senior management.

• How it works: Instead of a rigid 2×2 matrix, OSPA emphasises the process of reframing. It clearly distinguishes between the transactional context (what the organisation can influence, e.g. the digitalisation of its own processes) and the environmental context (macro-trends over which we have no control). Scenarios are constructed as tools to induce cognitive shock and a shift in perspective.
• Best use: organisations facing digital transformation, the automation revolution or drastic changes in customer behaviour, where old operating models are becoming a hindrance.
• The challenge: requires the board to demonstrate great intellectual maturity and a willingness to question its own track record.

3. The French school (La Prospective / morphological analysis)

This is a highly analytical, structured approach pioneered by figures such as Michel Godet and Gaston Berger. It draws heavily on systems analysis and mathematics.

• How it works: It breaks the system down into dozens of variables (economic, social, technological) and examines the relationships between them using tools such as cross-impact analysis. This makes it possible to eliminate scenarios that are logically inconsistent.
• Best use: complex macroeconomic issues and public policy. It is ideally suited to designing comprehensive resilience-building programmes for entire sectors, labour markets or countries (e.g. long-term economic strategies in response to automation).
• The challenge: is extremely time-consuming, requires specialist software and advanced analytical skills.

4. The Incasting Method (Deductive Scenarios / Normative Scenarios)

Most methods are exploratory approaches (moving from the present towards possible futures). Incasting often works in the opposite way – it is a prescriptive approach.

• How it works: We start by imagining a specific, desired future state (e.g. ‘By 2040, the organisation has achieved full digital resilience and carbon neutrality’). We then work backwards (backcasting), determining what events and steps would need to take place, step by step, for this state to become a reality.
• Best use: developing roadmaps for strategic visions and helping teams understand what steps need to be taken today to achieve the desired market position.
• The challenge: the risk of wishful thinking if we do not take potential barriers and ‘black swans’ into account at every stage.

Here is a brief comparison of them:

PTC’s ambition is to establish a Polish school of scenario planning, in which specific sets of techniques will be tailored to a given research problem. This approach will be based on the research planning method itself.

This is a broad and multifaceted issue. Broadly speaking, assessing the current state of the environment and its potential future, when combined with a detailed analysis of resources, must result in one or more market value propositions. This involves a wide range of techniques. The most important thing, however, is to approach this process as a continuous phenomenon, within which proposals for new values are developed and then tested.

The integration of scenario planning with the process of generating new business models is the point at which static design (such as the classic Business Model Canvas) gives way to building dynamic resilience. Rather than seeking a single, perfect solution, we create an organisation capable of adapting and seamlessly switching between different operational scenarios.

To turn this into a repeatable methodology – whether for advisory processes or educational programmes for managers – these two worlds need to be combined into a structured, iterative process.

Here is a tried-and-tested – though not the only – mechanism for integrating these two approaches:

1. Building a baseline model: the current state of affairs. Before we look to the future, the team must have a shared understanding of the present. Using a chosen framework (e.g. the Business Model Canvas), we break down the company’s current way of operating. We identify key resources, cost structure, revenue streams and – most importantly – the unique value proposition.
2. Identification of critical uncertainties: environmental variables. Rather than analysing all possible trends, we select those that could destroy or radically alter the underlying model. For modern businesses, these are most often factors related to digital resilience (e.g. cyber threats, regulatory changes) and automation (the replacement of human labour by cognitive systems). We select the two strongest, independent uncertainties.
3. Scenario mapping (2×2 matrix): creating test worlds. We combine the selected uncertainties to create four extreme yet plausible scenarios for the coming decade, for example. Each of these scenarios should be given a catchy name and a brief narrative description so that those involved in the process can easily visualise it and ‘get a feel’ for its specific characteristics.
4. Wind tunnel testing: a collision with the future. This is the most crucial part of the integration process. We take the base model from step 1 and apply it, one by one, to each of the four scenarios from step 3. We ask the tough questions: Does our current distribution channel still have a place here? Will customers still need our value proposition once the market is fully automated? We mark in red the elements of the model that fail in a given scenario.
5. Generating new business models: variant design. For each of the four worlds, we develop a new business model that would be successful in that context. Here, we employ classic model-design tools. It may turn out that in scenario A we need to switch to a subscription model and full virtualisation, whilst in scenario B the key will be hyper-locality and personal relationships.
6. The essence of the strategy (Core & Options): optionality and triggers. We analyse the newly developed models. The elements that recur and work across all scenarios are known as ‘no-regret moves’ – we implement them immediately. The rest become strategic options. The final task is to assign ‘triggers’ (early warning signals) to each scenario, so that management knows when to activate a specific, pre-prepared business model.

When teaching or facilitating this process, it is worth making decision-makers aware that scenarios have the greatest impact on specific components of the business model. The table below helps to generate ideas systematically during workshops:

Key learning point: The real value of combining scenario planning with business model design does not lie in creating a single, perfect plan on paper. It lies in the shift in the team’s cognitive flexibility. Managers who go through this process stop fearing change, as they have already ‘rehearsed’ in their minds models of how to act in different versions of the future.

Equally important, it is worth remembering that radical innovations – particularly in large organisations – are a real rarity. It is better to adopt new solutions gradually. Scenarios allow you to get to grips with innovations and demonstrate the full business case for such an implementation.

Working with C-level executives and senior management requires a specific approach. Top-level managers are usually pressed for time, focused on immediate results (ROI), and often burdened by the so-called ‘curse of knowledge’, which makes it difficult for them to move beyond the status quo.

The tools used in facilitation – particularly if they are ultimately intended to form part of structured educational programmes or textbooks on business model design – must be highly engaging and visual, and immediately link abstract concepts to concrete investment decisions.

Here are the four most effective working methods that overcome resistance and guarantee measurable results:

1. Exercise: ‘Kill the Company’

Management teams naturally and subconsciously defend their past achievements and current business model. This exercise bypasses the decision-makers’ egos, radically shifting their perspective from defenders to attackers.

• Mechanics: zespół zostaje podzielony na podgrupy. Ich zadaniem nie jest ratowanie firmy, lecz wcielenie się w bezlitosną konkurencję z przyszłości lub w rynkowego „czarnego łabędzia” (np. uderzenie pełnej automatyzacji w sektorze, drastyczna zmiana regulacji państwowych). Mają 45 minut na zaprojektowanie wejścia na rynek startupu, platformy lub usługi, która w ułamku sekundy zdeklasuje obecny model biznesowy ich własnej organizacji.
• Szablon: prosta karta „Aktu Zgonu Konkurenta”, na której wypisują: naszą bezwzględną przewagę technologiczną, dlaczego starzy gracze (czyli nasza obecna firma) nie zdążą zareagować oraz który strumień przychodów atakujemy jako pierwszy.
• Value: doskonały lodołamacz. Szokuje i natychmiast obnaża luki w cyfrowej i operacyjnej odporności, o których wszyscy w firmie wiedzą, ale nikt wcześniej nie miał odwagi powiedzieć o nich głośno.

2. Template: Wind Tunnel (Wind-Tunneling Canvas)

It is a powerful visual tool that brings market scenarios back into the realm of operational management. It is absolutely essential for developing a repeatable methodology for building resilience.

• Mechanics: We use a large-format board (physical or digital, e.g. in Miro/Mural). In the centre, we have drawn the company’s current base model (e.g. the Business Model Canvas). We divide the management team into four groups – each becomes an ‘ambassador’ for one of the previously generated future scenarios (e.g. a world in 2040 where extremely restrictive digital sovereignty standards are in force).
• Sticker activity: The groups are tasked with placing a red sticker on those blocks of the current model that will be destroyed in ‘their world’ (e.g. existing suppliers will disappear), and a green sticker on those that will increase in value.
• Value: Instead of vague expert discussions, we get a precise heatmap. The board can see in black and white that, for example, physical distribution channels are highlighted in red in three out of four possible future scenarios.

3. Exercise: Pre-mortem and Diary from the Future

Reverse engineering failure or success, forcing one to think clearly in terms of cause and effect.

• Mechanics: We transport participants into the future, for example to the year 2035 or 2040. The facilitator reads out a fictional headline from a leading industry website: ‘Our company files for bankruptcy after decades of dominance’ or ‘Our company becomes a market monopolist thanks to a revolution in automation’.
• Task: Participants work backwards (backcasting). They must write a ‘story’ of how things came to this – which three key omissions (e.g. delaying the digitalisation of the offering) or outstanding investment decisions taken today led to this outcome.
• Value: formulates a strong, clear narrative around the new strategic agenda, which is essential when the board needs to communicate the need for painful changes to the rest of the organisation.

4. Prioritisation matrix: investments and options (Strategic Commitment Matrix)

The final workshop template, in which the knowledge gathered is translated into a concrete roadmap. Boards of directors particularly value this format, as it directly structures budgetary and investment policy.

Teaching tip: Standardising these formats within a comprehensive handbook or a bespoke educational programme means that foresight ceases to be a one-off experiment and becomes a repeatable process. As a result, decision-makers gain a ready-made tool for continuously updating their operational strategies.

Early Warning Systems (EWS) are a critical component that completes the process of transforming theoretical models into practical management tools. It is the EWS that acts as the organisation’s ‘nervous system’ – monitoring the environment and sending a signal that the current business model is beginning to lose its relevance, and that the alternative option prepared in advance must be activated.

To design an effective system that does not overwhelm the board with information overload, a structured approach is required.

Architecture of the Early Warning System

The process of designing triggers and indicators is best divided into four distinct stages:

1. Breaking down scenarios into phenomena: from macro to micro. We take a previously developed scenario (e.g. a world dominated by radical digital resilience requirements and hyper-automation) and break it down into specific events that would need to occur for that world to become a reality. We ask the question: what exactly needs to happen in terms of legislation, technology or B2B customer behaviour over the next 24 months for us to conclude that we are entering this specific scenario?
2. Identifying leading indicators: leading vs. lagging. Większość firm monitoruje wskaźniki opóźnione (historyczne), takie jak spadek sprzedaży czy rotacja kadr. EWS musi opierać się na wskaźnikach wyprzedzających (leading indicators), które dają czas na reakcję. Szukamy „słabych sygnałów” (weak signals) na obrzeżach naszej branży, w instytutach badawczych, w projektach ustaw oraz w zmianach specyfikacji przetargowych.
3. Setting triggers: the point of no return. The metric alone is not enough. A trigger is a specific numerical value or binary event that initiates a procedure. Instead of saying “the growing role of automation”, we define a trigger as: “the costs of implementing algorithms that replace analytical work fall below PLN 1,500 per process, and three of our key clients include this requirement in their requests for proposals”.
4. Allocation of responsibility and reporting procedures: operationalisation. Even the best EWS will gather dust if it isn’t implemented as a process. Every trigger must have an ‘owner’ (a specific member of the board or a director) who is responsible for its ongoing monitoring. The results of EWS monitoring become a regular, e.g. quarterly, item on the agenda of board meetings, where the only question is: have we exceeded the threshold and are we triggering the strategic option?

The anatomy of indicators: how to distinguish signals from noise

The effectiveness of triggers depends on where we place our ‘listening posts’. In the context of changing business models and building resilience strategies, it is worth classifying indicators according to their lead time.

The table below illustrates the difference between lagging indicators—which are of little use from a foresight perspective—and the desired leading indicators, using the ‘Forced digitalisation and B2B automation’ scenario as an example:

Implementing a new business model: the ‘if-then’ approach

Once the trigger is activated, the time for analysis is over. When designing this methodology, managers should be taught to think in terms of market options (Real Options Analysis).

The logic of the operation should be as follows:

The shelf rule: A new business model designed for a specific scenario is shelved in the form of a defined strategic option (e.g. an outline of a new SaaS service). Funding and scale for this option are only unlocked once a specific trigger has been met.

Example of how it works:

• Trigger (binary event): The government is introducing mandatory requirements regarding digital traceability and data security for all suppliers in public procurement procedures (Public Procurement Law).
• Action (new business model): launching a model that has so far been tested on a small scale. Shifting 30% of the marketing budget to a new advisory platform for the B2G sector, whilst cutting investment in existing, non-digital sales channels.

EWS relieves leaders of the burden of guesswork. The decision to make a radical pivot ceases to be the risky vision of a charismatic CEO and becomes a dispassionate, procedural consequence of previously established assumptions and market observations.

Communicating strategic foresight within a company is like walking on thin ice. If the board suddenly starts talking constantly about ‘black swans’, ‘radical pivots’ and ‘scenarios that could destroy the current business model’, employees will hear only one thing: ‘the company is in trouble; there will be redundancies’.

Instead of fostering agility, you will cause operational paralysis and a loss of talent.

To prevent a sense of constant threat, the communication surrounding scenario-based methodologies and early warning systems needs to be completely rethought. Instead of a narrative focused on escaping a crisis, we are building a narrative centred on safety and resilience.

Here are the principles for successfully embedding this communication into the organisational culture:

1. Change your mindset: this is an investment in ‘resilience’, not crisis management

During internal training sessions or presentations, avoid using fear-mongering language. When implementing this methodology within the company, it is worth treating it as part of a coherent staff training programme – a sort of internal handbook for survival and development. By teaching staff how new business models work, you show them that the company is not sitting idly by waiting for market upheavals linked to the coming automation or changes in legislation.

Explain this using simple analogies:

“Why do we carry out fire drill evacuations every year? It’s not because the building is on fire. We do them so that we can feel safe there. Our contingency planning is simply a fire safety system for our workplaces and the stability of the company.”

2. Separate the ‘core’ from the ‘experiment’

Middle management needs operational clarity. It must be made clear to them that 80–90% of the company continues to focus on its current, proven business model (Core Business) and on process optimisation.

Reassure them that testing new business models for alternative scenarios takes place in isolated ‘sandboxes’, and not at the expense of their day-to-day budgets or resources. They should know: ‘Your job is to improve what we’re doing today. The board’s job is to keep an eye on the radar to see whether what we’re doing today will still be needed in five years’ time.”

3. Modification of the internal dictionary

Words carry a powerful emotional weight. The table below shows how a facilitator or management should adjust the language used in official internal communications:

4. Zaangażuj pracowników w System Wczesnego Ostrzegania (EWS)

The best way to manage uncertainty is to give people a sense of control. Frontline staff (sales staff, B2B customer service representatives, IT specialists) have the best access to leading indicators – they are the first to hear unusual queries from customers or spot gaps in the systems.

• Turn them into ‘system sensors’. Instead of keeping the EWS at management level only, ask the operational departments to report any anomalies.
• When an employee realises that unusual customer behaviour (such as a sudden enquiry about the compatibility of your systems with a new cybersecurity standard) is not a cause for panic, but rather a valuable ‘early warning sign’ for the company’s strategy, they become an active contributor to the organisation’s resilience, rather than a passive observer of change.

Key takeaway: The realisation that the company has a structured, measured process for transitioning to new operating models in the event of macroeconomic shocks paradoxically fosters tremendous loyalty within teams. Employees can see that the captain of the ship has a precise navigation chart and radar, rather than simply scanning the horizon for icebergs through binoculars.

In the B2B and B2G sectors, it is no longer just services or implementations that are being sold – what is being sold is business continuity, risk reduction and peace of mind. Institutional clients want to know that the partner they are committing to for years to come will weather the coming technological, regulatory and market upheavals.

Here’s how to turn internal strategic agility into a unique value proposition and communicate it via your own digital platform:

1. Homepage architecture: from provider to guarantor of stability

When revamping the institutional offering and the platform’s homepage, you should immediately move away from the standard message of ‘we do X, Y, Z’. Clients are looking for partners who can weather crises.

• New value proposition: The headlines on the homepage should emphasise our readiness for the future. Instead of ‘Successful implementations and digitalisation’, use ‘We safeguard your business model against the technological and regulatory upheavals of the coming decade’.
• Digital Resilience Manifesto: Create a dedicated page or section on your website that openly explains your approach to shaping the future. Show that your methodology is based on continuously monitoring long-term agendas (e.g. looking ahead to 2040) and adapting to them. This builds immense trust among decision-makers seeking stable partners.

2. Content Strategy and SEO: SEO as an early warning system

A digital platform must stay ahead of trends, rather than merely commenting on them. This attracts high-quality traffic (decision-makers) who are looking for solutions to their future problems before they become widespread.

• Publication of macroeconomic scenarios: Share excerpts from your own scenario analyses in the form of reports or articles. Publications such as ‘Three scenarios for process automation in the public sector over the next five years’ position the platform as an expert hub.
• Market signals as content: Instead of the standard newsletter featuring discounts or new products, launch a “Market Signals Bulletin” for your subscribers (B2B clients). Show clients which regulatory and technological triggers are currently flashing yellow. This encourages them to return to the platform regularly to access expert insights.

3. Institutional provision: the commodification of foresight

The methodology for scenario planning and generating new business models is not just an internal tool – it is a powerful, standalone consulting product that is excellent at generating leads.

• Interactive tools (lead magnets): Build a simple calculator or an interactive digital resilience audit on the platform. Let a client from the local government sector or an SME answer a few questions and receive an automated result: “Your current operating model is vulnerable to 3 out of 4 upcoming regulatory shocks. See how we can fix this.”
• Workshops as a ‘product of trust’: Offer clients ‘wind-tunnel’ sessions for their own business models. Before a client commits to a large, capital-intensive implementation, invite their management team to a workshop where they can test their ideas against the future. This drastically shortens the sales cycle, as the client sees the critical gaps in their own business with their own eyes.

4. A leading position in the B2G sector (public procurement)

The public administration and local government sector operates on the basis of long-term investment plans and a rigid legal framework. Requirements relating to data sovereignty, security and digital resilience are becoming key criteria in the awarding of contracts within this sector.

• By demonstrating a deep understanding of the legal framework (e.g. state aid rules) on the platform, combined with a methodology for anticipating change, you position yourself not as just another technology provider, but as a strategic auditor. You assure officials that public funds will not be invested in solutions that will prove obsolete or non-compliant with new EU directives in three years’ time.

Instead of keeping scenario planning tucked away in boardrooms, make it a central pillar of your brand narrative. An agile company is one you can do business with with confidence.

Below is a draft of the ‘Digital Resilience Manifesto’. It has been written to serve as a powerful, compelling opening for your homepage, positioning your platform as a strategic partner for businesses (B2B) and public sector organisations (B2G). It uses benefit-driven language and references long-term agendas and challenges related to automation, and is ready for immediate implementation.

Social resilience systems is the invisible infrastructure that determines whether, in the face of a major shock (a pandemic, economic collapse, natural disaster or technological breakdown), a given community, city or nation disintegrates, or is able to survive, adapt and emerge from the crisis stronger.

In traditional crisis management, resilience is often defined as the ability to ‘bounce back’ and return to the state prior to the crisis. From the perspective of strategic foresight and uncertainty management, we view it differently: true social resilience is the ability to transform and evolve in response to a crisis (bouncing forward).

Systemic social resilience also involves preventive measures designed to avert the occurrence of large-scale adverse events. The design of such measures using scenario-based methodology lies at the heart of PTC’s work. For example, in the case of digitalisation, the key mechanism for preventing impoverishment is the process we propose of developing alternative business models in the SME sector.

This system is not made up of state-run rescue procedures or retaining walls, but primarily of relationships, norms and invisible networks of connections. It is based on four fundamental pillars:

In the methodology for designing strategic scenarios, the state of social systems is one of the most important ‘critical uncertainties’.

When we model a scenario involving a major ‘black swan’ event (such as a total digital blackout lasting several weeks, during which payment systems and supply chains collapse), modern technology is useless. Whether a given country survives this test without descending into anarchy depends almost entirely on whether there is a sufficiently high level of trust (to prevent mass panic and riots) and the effectiveness of local mutual aid networks.

We are currently witnessing a major shift in the world of big business. Corporations investing billions of dollars in new factories or logistics centres (so-called ‘nearshoring’) have stopped focusing solely on labour costs. They are beginning to treat a region’s social resilience indicators as a key factor in their operational risk analysis. In an era of constant crises, investors know that it is the social capital of a given territory that ultimately guarantees the continuity of their supply chains.

Digitalisation is about much more than just technology these days

This is a profound transformation of the economy, institutions and society – and here at PTC, we take a holistic view of it.

The Polish Digital Society addresses the broad issue of digitalisation and its impact on social and economic life. We focus in particular on an area that is often overlooked in public debate – mass automation and its long-term consequences.

It is automation that is now one of the greatest sources of systemic risk and far-reaching, widespread change. That is why building strategic resilience We regard these changes as absolutely essential.

Our response: scenarios and new business models

The main tools we recommend to organisations are:

• scenario planning – enabling us to envisage different possible futures,
• designing new business models – providing a genuine ability to adapt.

The ability to generate new business models is a natural defence mechanism for companies against the effects of the ‘hyper-efficiency’ of large, technology-driven organisations. It is also a way of ensuring that Polish companies do not merely become passive recipients of global changes, but active participants in them.

Strategic choices for a young organisation

As a relatively new player in the Polish public sphere, PTC must focus on the areas that are most important – including from a strategic perspective – to the organisation itself.

Our starting point is the project “Poland’s Digital Resilience Agenda 2040”. It is the foundation upon which our future activities are built – including the development and creation of digital solutions that meet new societal needs.

An agile organisation needs agile technologies

The introduction of mechanisms that foster business agility also facilitates the effective implementation of digital solutions. A flexible organisation needs flexible IT systems – and poorly executed implementations can set back a company or organisation’s transformation for years to come.

That is why our policy paves the way for initiatives that grow and evolve alongside organisationsin which they are implemented.